HomeNewsAsian spot LNG prices at 4-month high as U.S.-Iran conflict intensifies

Asian spot LNG prices at 4-month high as U.S.-Iran conflict intensifies

7/17/2026
  • Spot LNG prices at highest level since late March
  • ICIS expects global LNG market to shrink by around 9 million tons in 2026
  • El Nino-driven heat boosting Asian cooling demand, curbing regional output
  • Europe fears winter stockpiles may lag

Asia's spot liquefied natural gas price rose for a fourth straight week to a near four-month high after the U.S. and Iran stepped up attacks across the Gulf, again cutting supplies via the Strait of Hormuz and fueling concerns over supply.

The average LNG price for September delivery into northeast Asia LNG-AS was estimated at $20.10 per million British thermal units, its highest since March 20 and up from $18/MMBtu last week, industry sources said.

"The recent strikes on tankers and heightened tensions in the Gulf have dramatically shifted expectations from a month ago," said Alex Froley, senior LNG analyst at ICIS. "In mid-June the Qatari PM had been talking about re-starting production within weeks, but plans will have to be delayed as Hormuz traffic halts again."

Global LNG market seen shrinking. ICIS has pushed back its base-case forecast for LNG flows via Hormuz to resume from August-September to October-November, with potential for further losses if the outage continues beyond October-November, Froley said.

The data intelligence firm also now expects the global LNG market to shrink by around 9 million metric tons in 2026, reversing a pre-war forecast for growth of about 30 million tons, he added.

The fundamental situation in Asia is still relatively tight given the development of an El Nino weather pattern, higher cooling demand and lower hydro availability throughout the region, Brainchild Commodity Intelligence analyst Klaas Dozeman said.

"Spot interest is varying from country to country, with Pakistan on the tight end with recurring tenders being awarded," he said. "China's activity still seems to be limited, but its entry into the spot market might further tighten the global LNG balance over the summer and autumn."

Gas storage being refilled. In Europe, gas prices rose to around €58 per megawatt hour, the highest intraday level since March 23, amid concerns over refilling gas storage before winter.

"While European gas storage levels slowly increased from around 51.8% to 52.8%, market participants remained concerned that lower LNG imports and subdued injection rates could leave Europe short of its winter storage targets," S&P Global Energy's head of Atlantic LNG Aly Blakeway said.

"July LNG arrivals into Europe were running significantly below both June and year-ago levels."

S&P Global Energy assessed its daily northwest Europe LNG price benchmark for cargoes delivered in September on an ex-ship basis at $18.189/MMBtu on Thursday, a $0.22/MMBtu discount to the price at the TTF hub.

Spark Commodities assessed the front-month price at $18.218/MMBtu, while Argus assessed it at $17.31/MMBtu. In LNG freight, Atlantic rates fell to $96,250/day and Pacific rates increased to $74,500/day, Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan said.

The U.S. Gulf Coast prompt cargos are currently priced at $16.794/MMBtu on July 16, he added.

The U.S. front-month arbitrage to northeast Asia via the Cape of Good Hope is still pointing to Europe, albeit the weakest signal to the continent. Meanwhile while the arbitrage via Panama is open and firmly pointing to Asia, Afghan said.

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