HomeNewsEuropean benchmark hits 7-week high on cold, low storage, geopolitics

European benchmark hits 7-week high on cold, low storage, geopolitics

1/12/2026

Europe's benchmark gas contract hit a near seven-week high amid colder weather forecasts, low storage levels and increased geopolitical risks to liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments.

The benchmark Dutch front-month contract at the TTF hub was up €0.93 at €29.35 per megawatt hour (MWh), or $10.05/MMBtu, by 0902 GMT, LSEG data showed. It briefly hit €29.69/MWh, its highest level since November 25, according to the data.

The Dutch day-ahead contract was up €0.60 at €29.60/MWh. The British day-ahead gas price was up 3.65 pence at 77.00 pence per therm.

"The end of the 14-day forecast horizon appears colder again, likely supporting the price development today," analysts at Mind Energy said in a daily note. Recent cold weather has also drained storages at increased volumes, they added.

EU gas storage sites were 54.88% full, compared with around 66.9% at the same time last year, the latest Gas Infrastructure Europe data showed.

"The next 10 days will be milder than normal, but the final week of January could bring colder weather again," LSEG meteorologist Georg Mueller said.

Intensified geopolitical tensions on reports the United States is considering military and cyber options against Iran has raised the risk of potential disruptions to LNG supply chains, LSEG analyst Dzmitry Dauhalevich said.

Europe is increasingly reliant on globally traded LNG following the loss of most of Russian pipeline gas supply.

Dutch gas system operator Gasunie said last year, for the first time, LNG imports exceeded pipeline gas supplies, including from Norway, with LNG imports rising 25.3%, or 4.2 Bm3, year on year.

In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract inched up by €0.09 to €89.65/tonne.

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