HomeNewsU.S. natgas prices jump 4% to 6-month high as record LNG export flows boost demand

U.S. natgas prices jump 4% to 6-month high as record LNG export flows boost demand

10/31/2025
  • Near-record LNG export flows boost demand
  • Lower 48 states see drop in gas output
  • Oil-to-gas ratio hits lowest since December 2022
  • Gas storage levels about 4% above normal, easing supply concerns

U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 4% to a six-month high on Friday on near-record flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants, an output drop so far this month and forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

Front-month gas futures for December delivery <NGc1> on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 16.0 cents, or 4.0%, to $4.116 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) at 9:12 a.m. EDT (1312 GMT), putting the contract on track for its highest close since April 3.

That price increase kept the contract in technically overbought territory for a second day in a row for the first time in four weeks.

For the week, the front-month was up about 25% after gaining 10% last week. That 25% gain would be its biggest weekly percentage gain since the contract rose by a record weekly percentage gain of around 33% in April 2024.

For the month, the contract was also up about 25% after gaining 10% last month. That 25% gain would be its biggest monthly percentage gain since March.

Those increases in U.S. gas futures, coupled with a roughly 12% drop in crude futures <CLc1> over the past three months, cut the oil-to-gas ratio, or the level where oil trades compared with gas, to 15-to-1, the lowest since December 2022. On an energy equivalent basis, oil should only trade six times over gas.

So far in 2025, crude prices have averaged about 19 times over gas. That compares with 33 times over gas in 2024 and 21 times over gas during the prior five years (2019–2023).

Supply and demand. LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 107.0 Bft3d so far in October, down from 107.5 Bft3d in September and a record monthly high of 108.0 Bft3d in August.

Record output earlier this year allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual. There is about 4% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year.

Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the country will remain mostly warmer than normal through November 15, which should keep heating demand lower than usual for this time of year.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would hold around 108.9 Bft3d this week and next before rising to 109.8 Bft3d in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 16.6 Bft3d so far in October, up from 15.7 Bft3d in September and a monthly record high of 16.0 Bft3d in April.

On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise to 17.9 Bft3d on Friday, which would top the current record of 17.3 Bft3d on October 25.

 

Week ended Oct 31 Actual

Week ended Oct 24 Actual

Year ago Oct 31

Five-year average Oct 31

  

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+37

+74

+68

+42

  

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

3,919

3,882

3,921

3,753

  

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

+4.4%

+4.6%

      
           
           

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2024

Five-Year Average (2019-2023)

Henry Hub <NGc1>

4.08

3.96

2.58

2.41

3.52

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) <TRNLTTFMc1>

10.48

10.54

12.89

10.95

15.47

Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) <JKMc1>

11.22

11.15

13.35

11.89

15.23
           
           

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

          

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) HDDs

200

202

134

212

231

U.S. GFS CDDs

18

17

49

23

16

U.S. GFS TDDs

218

219

183

235

247
           

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

          
 

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

          

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

107.0

107.6

107.4

102.8

98.1

U.S. Imports from Canada

7.5

7.7

7.4

N/A

7.4

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

114.5

115.2

114.8

N/A

105.5
           

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

          

U.S. Exports to Canada

2.1

2.2

2.3

N/A

2.2

U.S. Exports to Mexico

6.7

6.4

6.5

N/A

6.1

U.S. LNG Export Feedgas

16.9

16.8

17.9

13.1

11.3

U.S. Commercial

6.8

8.6

9.2

7.3

6.9

U.S. Residential

7.7

11.4

12.5

9.1

7.1

U.S. Power Plant

31.5

32.3

29.5

34.0

31.7

U.S. Industrial

22.8

23.4

23.5

22.6

22.4

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.2

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.0

2.2

2.2

2.0

2.8

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Total U.S. Consumption

76.2

83.4

82.3

80.4

76.3

Total U.S. Demand

101.9

108.8

109.0

N/A

95.9
           

N/A = Not Available

          
           

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)

2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast

2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2025 % of Normal Actual

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

94

93

76

74

83

Jan-Jul

90

89

78

76

77

Oct-Sep

91

89

80

77

76
           

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

          
 

Week ended Oct 24

Week ended Oct 17

2024

2023

2022

Wind

12

14

11

10

11

Solar

6

7

5

4

3

Hydro

5

5

6

6

6

Other

1

1

1

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

41

40

42

41

38

Coal

16

15

16

17

21

Nuclear

19

18

19

19

19
           

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

          

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2024

Five-Year Average (2019-2023)

Henry Hub <NG-W-HH-SNL>

3.46

3.36

2.19

2.19

3.49

Transco Z6 New York <NG-CG-NY-SNL>

3.15

2.99

1.64

1.98

3.29

PG&E Citygate <NG-CG-PGE-SNL>

3.72

3.79

3.72

3.04

5.47

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) <NG-PCN-APP-SNL>

3.01

2.78

1.53

1.68

2.77

Chicago Citygate <NG-CG-CH-SNL>

3.28

3.12

2.01

2.00

3.41

Algonquin Citygate <NG-CG-BS-SNL>

3.32

3.22

1.80

2.88

4.27

SoCal Citygate <NG-SCL-CGT-SNL>

3.63

3.63

2.60

2.47

5.92

Waha Hub <NG-WAH-WTX-SNL>

1.00

0.64

0.59

0.77

2.91

AECO <NG-ASH-ALB-SNL>

1.30

1.31

0.77

0.96

2.28
           

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

          

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2024

Five-Year Average (2019-2023)

New England <E-NEPLMHP-IDX>

44.73

52.90

40.14

47.35

48.44

PJM West <E-PJWHRTP-IX>

56.07

64.16

41.96

41.98

45.33

Mid C <W-MIDCP-IDX>

46.59

46.59

55.48

63.89

61.73

Palo Verde <W-PVP-IDX>

34.58

34.58

45.83

39.50

62.42

SP-15 <W-SP15-IDX>

35.57

35.57

35.86

31.30

58.87

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino in New York; Editing by David Holmes)

 

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