Uniper study: Full gas storage facilities are a protective shield for the German economy
- Well-filled gas storage facilities can prevent an economic recession and stabilize the energy markets
- In a stress scenario, they reduce economic losses by around €25 B, insufficiently filled storage facilities could cost €40 B
- High storage levels smooth out gas and electricity price peaks and protect purchasing power and investments
- Gas storage facilities act as a crisis buffer and safeguard electricity generation from gas-fired power plants
An exceptionally cold winter or a reduction in gas supplies in the winter of 2025–2026 could have a severe impact on the German economy, according to a recent study conducted by Frontier Economics on behalf of Uniper.
If the storage level in the aforementioned crisis in north-western Europe is only 75%, the economic damage could amount to almost €40 B. If storage levels were 90% full, however, the damage would fall to around €14 B – a difference of around €25 B, which would make the difference between stability and recession (Note: The scenarios assume a shortfall in gas supply and an excess of gas demand of around 18 Bm³ in north-western Europe in the winter of 2025–2026).
The fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026 would be particularly critical, when high consumption peaks meet weaker consumption and lower exports. (Note: The "normal temperature" is the 30-yr average of the reference period 1991–2020. In the first quarter of 2010, the temperature in Germany was around 2.2°C below this climate normal - a deviation that would be sufficient to trigger the stress scenario described). Even a first quarter of 2026 that is only 2.2°C colder than the “climate normal” (as in 2010) would be enough to trigger such a stress scenario.
Jens Perner, Frontier Economics: "Our short study shows: The availability of natural gas in storage is an important factor for our economy, especially in times of special supply situations. In the stress scenario, the economic damage in Germany would amount to almost €40 B if the storage facility in north-western Europe were only 75% full, compared to around €14 B if it were 90% full. This difference of €25 B illustrates the important safeguarding function that storage facilities can have for growth, purchasing power and investments."
Michael Lewis, CEO, Uniper: "The results of the study should be a warning: without full storage facilities, Germany is vulnerable. It's not just about technical security of supply, but about the core of the German economy. If gas supplies fail to materialize or the winter gets unexpectedly cold, full storage facilities can mitigate recessions, stabilize prices and are therefore a protective shield for the German economy."
Storage as a price shock absorber. The study also shows that storage systems act as a buffer against price shocks. Without them, import costs and therefore household and company expenditure increase dramatically. This weakens consumption, inhibits investment and depresses exports.
Storage systems secure the energy transition. With the phase-out of coal and nuclear energy, the demand for controllable capacity is growing. The Federal Network Agency expects up to 25.6 GW of new gas-fired power plant capacity by 2035. Storage facilities guarantee the supply of these power plants - today with gas, tomorrow increasingly with hydrogen. This makes them both a short-term crisis buffer and a long-term transformation partner.
Storage as a bridge to the hydrogen economy. Another key finding of the study is that large parts of the storage landscape can be converted to hydrogen. This means that storage facilities not only secure the supply during the transition phase, but also form a bridge to the hydrogen economy. A coordinated changeover prevents supply gaps in the event of a decline in natural gas and, at the same time, predetermined breaking points during the ramp-up of hydrogen.
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