U.S. natgas drops on lower feedgas to Freeport LNG, storage surplus
(Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slipped ahead of the expiration of the May contract, weighed down by a drop in feedgas to Freeport LNG's Texas export terminal and a huge surplus of gas in storage.
On its last day as the front-month, gas futures <NGc1> for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange traded 1.5 cents lower, or 0.9%, to $1.62 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 10:53 a.m. EDT, after drooping to its lowest since March 26 earlier in the session. Prices are down over 7% for the week.
On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was at 12.1 bcfd as the amount of gas flowing to Freeport LNG fell to 0.1 bcfd from 0.5 bcfd on Monday. Freeport LNG has suffered a series of outages this year, pressuring U.S. natural gas prices and adding to prices in Europe.
The issues with Freeport and weather conditions are pushing the market downward today, said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy. However, the first tanker set sail from Freeport LNG's Texas export terminal on Tuesday, raising hopes of a resumption of gas processing after an outage earlier this month.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday said utilities injected 92 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ending April 19, beating the expectations of traders surveyed by Reuters ahead of the report, who expected weekly natural gas stocks would be up 82 bcf.
"We continue to see a very supply-heavy supply demand balance, which is why prices will remain depressed," Cunningham added.
Financial company LSEG forecasts gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, to fall to 91.7 bcfd next week, from 92.2 bcfd this week.
"The expansion in the expiring May-June gas spread is offering additional evidence of an oversupplied market in which few users, such as utilities, see little need to stand for delivery with supplies more than ample to meet needs of a warmer than normal summer," energy advisory Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.
LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states had fallen to an average of 96.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in April from 100.8 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 105.6 bcfd in December 2023.
Meanwhile, in Europe gas prices were slightly lower as forecasts for milder weather outweighed the impact of Norwegian outages and concerns over liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply. [NG/EU]
Week ended Apr 26 Forecast |
Week ended Apr 19 Actual |
Year ago Apr 19 |
Five-year average Apr 19 |
||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+47 |
+92 |
+77 |
+59 |
|
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,472 |
2,425 |
1,986 |
1,770 |
|
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
34.2% |
37% |
|||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2023 |
Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub <NGc1> |
1.56 |
1.66 |
2.20 |
2.66 |
3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) <TRNLTTFMc1> |
9.24 |
9.41 |
13.49 |
13.04 |
14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) <JKMc1> |
10.43 |
10.44 |
12.34 |
14.39 |
14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days |
|||||
Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs |
62 |
64 |
135 |
148 |
150 |
U.S. GFS CDDs |
73 |
73 |
32 |
38 |
35 |
U.S. GFS TDDs |
135 |
137 |
167 |
186 |
185 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
|||||
Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month |
|
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
|||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
97.0 |
96.9 |
97.0 |
101.3 |
95.0 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
7.1 |
6.8 |
6.7 |
7.6 |
7.8 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
104.1 |
103.7 |
103.7 |
108.9 |
102.8 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
|||||
U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
2.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
6.7 |
6.6 |
6.5 |
6.0 |
5.4 |
U.S. LNG Exports |
11.7 |
12.1 |
12.1 |
14.4 |
10.1 |
U.S. Commercial |
7.8 |
5.8 |
5.5 |
7.4 |
8.4 |
U.S. Residential |
10.1 |
6.3 |
5.8 |
9.6 |
11.8 |
U.S. Power Plant |
28.6 |
30.0 |
30.5 |
25.6 |
22.7 |
U.S. Industrial |
23.3 |
23.3 |
22.3 |
21.5 |
25.9 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
4.8 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
4.9 |
5.0 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
76.8 |
71.3 |
70.9 |
71.2 |
76.2 |
Total U.S. Demand |
97.3 |
92.2 |
91.7 |
93.5 |
94.1 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
|||||
Week ended Apr 26 |
Week ended Apr 19 |
Week ended Apr 12 |
Week ended Apr 5 |
Week ended Mar 29 |
|
Wind |
14 |
18 |
16 |
15 |
16 |
Solar |
6 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
5 |
Hydro |
7 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
Other |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
38 |
35 |
37 |
38 |
38 |
Coal |
13 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
Nuclear |
20 |
19 |
20 |
20 |
19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
|||||
Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
|||
Henry Hub <NG-W-HH-SNL> |
1.46 |
1.60 |
|||
Transco Z6 New York <NG-CG-NY-SNL> |
1.32 |
1.53 |
|||
PG&E Citygate <NG-CG-PGE-SNL> |
2.02 |
2.25 |
|||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) <NG-PCN-APP-SNL> |
1.27 |
1.37 |
|||
Chicago Citygate <NG-CG-CH-SNL> |
1.25 |
1.40 |
|||
Algonquin Citygate <NG-CG-BS-SNL> |
1.40 |
1.56 |
|||
SoCal Citygate <NG-SCL-CGT-SNL> |
1.70 |
1.75 |
|||
Waha Hub <NG-WAH-WTX-SNL> |
0.86 |
0.34 |
|||
AECO <NG-ASH-ALB-SNL> |
0.97 |
1.04 |
|||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
|||||
Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
|||
New England <EL-PK-NPMS-SNL> |
23.75 |
25.75 |
|||
PJM West <EL-PK-PJMW-SNL> |
22.25 |
27.50 |
|||
Ercot North <EL-PK-ERTN-SNL> |
19.50 |
14.50 |
|||
Mid C <EL-PK-MIDC-SNL> |
25.00 |
38.07 |
|||
Palo Verde <EL-PK-PLVD-SNL> |
-0.50 |
1.50 |
|||
SP-15 <EL-PK-SP15-SNL> |
4.00 |
-1.75 |
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