U.S. natural gas prices firm as investors await storage report
(Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures gained, having hit their lowest in more than two weeks earlier, as investors awaited a weekly storage report that is expected to show a much smaller-than-usual storage withdrawal on lower heating demand.
Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.4 cents, or 1.5%, to $1.682 per million British thermal units at 10:09 a.m. EDT (1409 GMT).
"The market is effectively flat. If we see any kind of price rally this morning, it's just a little short covering ahead of the number, but we should consolidate into this number," said Robert DiDona of Energy Ventures Analysis.
"There's really nothing crazy to be expected, but the number today, it's going to be a relatively low, either it will be a small build or a small draw," he added.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly storage report at 10:30 a.m. ET (1430 GMT). U.S. utilities likely pulled a much smaller-than-usual 3 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas out of storage last week as warmer-than-normal weather kept heating demand low, a Reuters poll showed. [EIA/GAS]
The forecast for the week ended March 8 would cut stockpiles to 2.331 trillion cubic feet (tcf), about 17.2% above the same week a year ago and about 37.4% above the five-year average.
Prices fell as low as $1.511 per mmBtu on Feb. 27, their lowest level since June 2020, as near-record output, mostly mild weather and low heating demand this winter allowed utilities to leave significantly more gas in storage than usual for this time of year.
Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 100.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, down from 104.1 bcfd in February. That compares with a monthly record of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.
|
Week ended Mar 8 Forecast |
Week ended Mar 1 Actual |
Year ago Mar 8 |
Five-year average Mar 8 |
||
|
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
-3 |
-40 |
-65 |
-87 |
|
|
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,331 |
2,334 |
1,989 |
1,696 |
|
|
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
37.4% |
30.9% |
|||
|
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2023 |
Five Year Average (2018-2022) |
|
Henry Hub <NGc1> |
1.65 |
1.67 |
2.41 |
2.66 |
3.60 |
|
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) <TRNLTTFMc1> |
8.00 |
7.91 |
13.72 |
13.04 |
14.39 |
|
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) <JKMc1> |
8.48 |
8.47 |
13.59 |
14.39 |
14.31 |
|
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days |
|||||
|
Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
|
U.S. GFS HDDs |
235 |
236 |
291 |
303 |
307 |
|
U.S. GFS CDDs |
13 |
12 |
17 |
11 |
9 |
|
U.S. GFS TDDs |
248 |
248 |
308 |
314 |
316 |
|
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
|||||
|
Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month |
|
|
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
|||||
|
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
100.3 |
100.3 |
100.6 |
101.7 |
95.1 |
|
U.S. Imports from Canada |
7.3 |
7.6 |
7.9 |
8.6 |
8.4 |
|
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
|
Total U.S. Supply |
107.6 |
107.8 |
108.5 |
110.3 |
103.6 |
|
U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
|||||
|
U.S. Exports to Canada |
3.7 |
3.8 |
3.8 |
2.7 |
3.0 |
|
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
6.6 |
6.5 |
6.4 |
5.2 |
5.4 |
|
U.S. LNG Exports |
13.4 |
13.1 |
12.6 |
13.2 |
9.2 |
|
U.S. Commercial |
10.5 |
10.4 |
11.0 |
14.3 |
12.3 |
|
U.S. Residential |
15.8 |
15.1 |
16.0 |
22.8 |
19.4 |
|
U.S. Power Plant |
30.6 |
29.3 |
30.0 |
30.4 |
23.8 |
|
U.S. Industrial |
23.5 |
23.6 |
24.2 |
24.1 |
26.8 |
|
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
4.9 |
5.0 |
|
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
|
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
Total U.S. Consumption |
87.8 |
85.8 |
88.7 |
98.9 |
89.7 |
|
Total U.S. Demand |
111.6 |
109.2 |
111.4 |
120.0 |
107.3 |
|
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
|||||
|
Week ended Mar 15 |
Week ended Mar 8 |
Week ended Mar 1 |
Week ended Feb 23 |
Week ended Feb 16 |
|
|
Wind |
15 |
15 |
16 |
13 |
11 |
|
Solar |
5 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
|
Hydro |
8 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
|
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Natural Gas |
38 |
39 |
38 |
40 |
41 |
|
Coal |
12 |
13 |
16 |
15 |
16 |
|
Nuclear |
21 |
21 |
21 |
20 |
21 |
|
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
|||||
|
Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
|||
|
Henry Hub <NG-W-HH-SNL> |
1.25 |
1.57 |
|||
|
Transco Z6 New York <NG-CG-NY-SNL> |
1.09 |
1.27 |
|||
|
PG&E Citygate <NG-CG-PGE-SNL> |
2.41 |
2.34 |
|||
|
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) <NG-PCN-APP-SNL> |
1.02 |
1.24 |
|||
|
Chicago Citygate <NG-CG-CH-SNL> |
1.18 |
1.29 |
|||
|
Algonquin Citygate <NG-CG-BS-SNL> |
1.20 |
1.35 |
|||
|
SoCal Citygate <NG-SCL-CGT-SNL> |
1.77 |
1.91 |
|||
|
Waha Hub <NG-WAH-WTX-SNL> |
1.09 |
0.20 |
|||
|
AECO <NG-ASH-ALB-SNL> |
1.52 |
1.20 |
|||
|
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
|||||
|
Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
|||
|
New England <EL-PK-NPMS-SNL> |
21.25 |
24.00 |
|||
|
PJM West <EL-PK-PJMW-SNL> |
18.75 |
25.50 |
|||
|
Ercot North <EL-PK-ERTN-SNL> |
32.75 |
16.50 |
|||
|
Mid C <EL-PK-MIDC-SNL> |
37.69 |
40.29 |
|||
|
Palo Verde <EL-PK-PLVD-SNL> |
8.50 |
3.75 |
|||
|
SP-15 <EL-PK-SP15-SNL> |
6.25 |
2.25 |
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