Cheap Canadian gas imports may prolong US energy industry's rout (1)

6/10/2016

(Reuters)—US utilities and merchants are embarking on their biggest buying spree for Canadian natural gas since the start of the US shale boom, taking advantage of record low prices and raising concerns about the US industry's deepening crisis.

Traders have been scooping up more gas from Canada, the world's fifth largest producer, in recent months after prices at the AECO hub in Alberta sank to a big discount to the US benchmark.

With some analysts expecting the arbitrage to remain in place through the summer and traders having booked long-term pipeline deals, the shipments could last longer than previously expected, experts warn.

The deals will feed growing consumption from power generators after a record number of coal plants retired last year. In addition, gas demand is rising as the US exports more gas to Mexico via pipeline, and ramps up exports of LNG to the world, traders said.

The scramble has also offered loss-making Canadian drillers a chance to continue pumping out product as domestic tanks continue to fill up and prices languish near record lows.

But market experts worry the surprisingly strong imports could prolong the US market's biggest rout in a generation, adding to the ballooning glut after a warm winter left Canadian and US storage facilities at record highs.

"We're still pulling too much supply out of the field," said Martin King, an analyst at Alberta energy advisory FirstEnergy Capital.

Now, analysts expect Canadian imports to the US to rise this year for the first time since 2007, when growing output from US shale fields like the Marcellus in Pennsylvania started to displace Canadian fuel.

Some traders and producers have booked deals for as long as one year to ship product to the US Midwest on TransCanada Corp.'s Mainline pipeline, said Keith Barnett, head of fundamental analysis at US gas marketer ARM Energy.

The Mainline runs from Alberta to Quebec and connects with several pipelines capable of moving Canadian gas to the US Midwest.

(By Scott DiSavino)