The illusion of accuracy in analyzing plant failures

8/7/2024

Environment and Safety M. AL MUAISUB, Saudi Aramco, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia Plant engineers can face the illusion of accuracy in determining the responsible damage mechanism when analyzing failures or conducting incident investigations. Three things can cause the illusion of accuracy: The illusion of temperature limits accuracy for specific damage mechanisms. Three examples will be addressed here: graphitization, corrosion under insulation (CUI) and microbiologically influenced corrosion (MIC). The illusion of accuracy when depending on a single reference or industrial practice. The illusion of accuracy caused by confirmation bias. This is illustrated by discussing the Nelson